In response to the question that I got today from a reporter at Computer Reseller News asked the question: "How might [Apple] be more strongly affected by the financial crisis than other PC makers, simply by virtue of the higher price tag of Macs?"
My answer:
"It really depends on how broadly the economic slowdown hits four of Apple's core markets: the everyday consumer buying ipods, the high-end consumer buying expensive systems, small business, and now, surprisingly, the enterprise.
On the base consumer level, I think it's easy to figure that Apple's P&L will be hit by any level of financial crisis, simply because buying the next, new iPod is something that can be easily put off until the next year. Since Apple makes a significant amount of money on iPods, so a downturn in the general economy will definitely affect their bottom line. But it won't really affect their long-term prospects, either as a viable platform or financially. People will still buy their products once they feel like the crisis has subsided and they still have money.
For the higher-end consumer, it's more of a balance. Sure Apple doesn't have cheaper laptops and cheap desktop systems like Dell, so a more negative economy will limit how many people will be able to afford their systems. But in general, I see this as a slowing of growth more than a loss of market share. People buying Macs don't have a choice - either they pay the money to buy Apple or deal with an inferior experience. Until the Psystar-like clone makers make inroads into Apple's legal department (which they won't for years), I just see it as fewer Joe-Shmoe's who can afford Macs.
In my opinion, that would be OK. I've always felt that Apple's stratospheric growth in recent quarters could take a toll on Apple's focus as a company. The more thousands of consumers that they're having to migrate from PC to Mac takes away their focus on the business market - if simply because the consumers make up the bulk of the people at the now famous Genius bar, leaving business customers with a pretty crappy experience. It's always been my opinion that Apple's real future is with business users.
For business, it comes down to the impact that this "Wall Street hits Main Street" crisis has on Main Street. So far, our SMB customers have been purchasing just as much Mac gear as they have in every year - but we expect that if a slowdown shows here, we'll see it in Q4, as businesses figure out that they have less profits to burn off at the end of the year and want to be a bit more cautious going into the next one.
For our part, we're focusing more on serious businesses customers. I think that the very large, global enterprises will weather this storm well (as long as they are not in the financial sector), and that smaller speciality industries are going to find a way to show their value as the public companies falter. These are great customers for the Mac, and I think they'll find the value in switching any economic condition."
